What makes people love  Charlotte? Any given Community? What is it about the place that they love?

These were some of the questions asked in the three year study by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation conducted by Gallup polling in  26 metropolitan areas around the country. Charlotte was fortunate to be included, and here is what they found.

Broadly speaking, almost 28000 people were interviewed in 2008 and 2009  in the 26 city study, there were three primary factors in every city.

Social Offerings- entertainment, places to meet, “what’s going on.” This was across age levels too, not just the young.This was #1 in 21 of 26  cities

Openness- how welcoming the place is

Aesthetics- the physical beauty of the place, often a reflection of its parks, trails and natural areas

Access to quality education was also rated highly- K-12, College or Both

Interestingly, these values were measured both in 2008, then in 2009, and the answers didn’t change much because of the economy. Economics was THE Top concern in 2009… but didn’t seem to determine the emotional attachment to the community. Interestingly, crime is a concern, but didn’t make the list regarding emotional attachment.

Charlotte scored high on Aesthetics, and Social offerings, less so on Openness, and scored high on quality education, with 2009 improving over 2008. Young people- college grads’s and folks over 55 with middle to high incomes were the most attached to Charlotte.

I’m just diving into this study, I’ve always been curious about this, and so to this Foundation.  Why do people love to live in Charlotte? Anywhere? Details are found a The Soul of the Community

They also found a correlation between peoples passion for the community and the economic well-being though now one is sure which way the causal direction arrow points…  Charlotte details here.

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The US economy in 2009- 1st Quarter 6.4% loss, 2nd Quarter 0.7% loss, 3rd Quarter 3.5% gain

Inflation was annualized 1.6%. that is outstanding as well.

What’s left, we are done on the economy, right?

No, not done, not even close with more than 10M jobs lost, and over 12 M unemployed, and a Still shaky financial system.

It is ALL about Creating new jobs. Obama said it, and I couldn’t agree more. Waiting on those unemployment numbers to trend DOWN.  Details here at the New York Times

But in Charlotte we are making progress:

If you saw my last post you know Charlotte IS creating new jobs, 20% ahead of the pace in 2008, and unemployment is falling in Charlotte and Charlotte real estate prices have risen in 4 of the last 6 months, and homes sold were up 23% in August over a year before…

Still, if we want the good times rolling here in Charlotte, we have to create jobs- jobs for May grad’s, for mid-level managers, in finance, in manufacturing, in the service sector…

Question of the day? How can Charlotte, and North Carolina Grow more jobs here? Without the cross-state bribery going on in South Carolina?

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Charlotte NC   Persistently low demand, 50% 0ff 2008’s pace by volume, has pushed average Charlotte home prices lower still in January, 13% off the same averages in 2008, and 13% off for the last 90 days of closings.  Sold to list has average 90%, as single family closings fell in January to 1,108 “Solds.”

Sales by units are around 2001 levels, Sales by price are still above January 2006 prices.  What the sub-prime/foreclosure fiasco couldn’t do to the Charlotte market, the Wall Street disaster’s did.  

Virtually all areas in the region suffered, from Lake Norman to South Charlotte. Demand has been off for nearly 2 years, and in just he last 6 months we began to lose some value, which is a testament to the strength of home values here.

Nationally Zillow Reports Loss of 3.3 Trillion Dollars in Home Values in 2008

Much if this is no doubt necessary, but as I have shown , in multiple posts, there were tons of American cities and markets that didn’t play the “Real Estate Bubble Game” including Charlotte, and have no real reason to be losing value, but are, because of a lack of demand. Below the fold- Housing Stimulus plans gaining traction in the Senate!

Zillow also reported the total loss of $6.1 Trillion in home Values since their peak in 2006.  Some of that is no doubt bubble money created by junk loans. Fine. But what about the rest of us?

Mr. President, and Honorable Senators, Honorable Congressman: We must get the housing markets working again to rebuild this economy. Home values are, rightly or wrongly,  American Savings accounts, and consumer confidence Won’t be restored until we are comfortable in our homes again, and it MUST be in this Economic Recovery Act. There is not another day to lose.

We must stimulate demand through home tax credits and low interest rates. And we must force the workouts, the write downs of loan balances of millions of homes, to stop the glut of foreclosures entering the market and keep Americans in their homes.

Both plans- the NAR (Realtors)4 point plan and the NAHB (Builders) are being pushed by Republican Senators, hopefully they can get this accomplished with the White house in conference.

We can’t wait, each day that goes buy, America loses more of it’s wealth and housing health.  ACT NOW.
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look for that post later today.

Demand is Up for McDonald Team

In November and December, things were so quiet we joked about whether the local car washes need any help.  It is increasingly harder to “feel” the market as our Team demand was up in January, 2009. We had 4 new contracts accepted, 2 with buyers, 2 of our bank listings went under contract. We had more than 50 new e-mail inquiries, and 6-8 phone inquiries as well, 8-10 buyer visits, and we created at least 8 new buyer relationships.

Fix Housing First Ain’t Happening

Fix Housing First has been the slogan of the National Home Builders in their attempt to get a massive housing stimulus in the package the President will soon sign, it has essentially failed. A smaller effort led by the NAR was more successful in getting the current $7500 tax credit/loan into a pure credit-

which will help stimulate first time buyer demand.   This is still fluid as the House and Senate meet in Conference over the next few weeks to hammer out this bill.  I’d hope to see a broader credit, and an extended credit through the end of the year. My wish list would include lower mortgage rates, but the administration has signalled they will do a housing bill later in the spring.

We must create more demand for housing. Not to the extent the Home Builders want, but we need more demand in the 2/3’s of the markets outside of the “gold rush” states of Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona.

In my next post I’ll look at what any attempt to repair our housing markets needs to look like more closely.

Once again, I must ask all Home Sellers, if you don’t have to sell, please take your home off the market to leave room for those who do have to sell.  I know it is  a lot to ask. The faster inventories are lowered, the faster we’ll get things back to normal around here.

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That’s the good news. Over in Charlie Rangel’s office, the House Ways and Means Committee is drafting the economic stimulus package that President Obama speaks about daily and hopes to have passed by mid- February, and a

$7500 Housing Tax credit is In IT for home buyers who have not bought a home in 3 years, who are buying for their primary residence, and with income below $95K individually, $170K jointly.

Real tax credits, for those out of the home market the last 3 years.  They currently deadline when the old credits do, July of 2009, and the NAR is working to extend them through the end of the year.

This is big news, rocket fuel for the Realty business. I have to say I like that!

There are two competing schools of thought here… one says once the economy shows signs of rebounding in say 5-6 months, housing will rebound right along with the rising consumer confidence.   The other says, too many homes are losing value for no good reason now, and if we stimulate housing through tax credits and low interest rates, housing may take the lead in leading our economy out of the recession.

The first thought, wait and let the economy pull housing up,  depends on the notion that since the average recession since World War II has lasted “only” 18 months, and we are more than 9 months in, then help for housing is really just around the corner-5-6 months, so best to just watch and wait.

It’s obvious I favor the 2nd approach, a more aggressive approach that stops the falling prices where they should stop falling- the 66% of the markets that didn’t over inflate (according to PMI)  This not only prevents the continuing destruction of wealth in home values- America’s other savings plan, but does not rely on the unknowable argument of when this slow down will end. Without agressive government intervetion, this is recession is likely to last much longer. Japan faced a similar melt down in their banking industry, and responded very slowly, and it spread throughout their economy.

It didn’t last 18 months, today the Japanese call it the “lost decade.”

Also we need to deal with all the workouts that need to be done- we can’t have a million foreclosures a year, or more, and get a healthy home market.

Alas, it looks like President Obama needs to send his enforcer, Rahm Emmanual, over to the House, not to speak to the Republicans but members of his own party who see the “Stimulus” bill as one way to get everyting they’ve wanted the last 8 years.

I know this is radical but The Stimulus must Stimulate!

Out of the 800B or so, just 30 B (3.7%) is marked for roads and bridges, 800M of that goes to NC, and under the current formula’s, 76M to Charlotte. $76M! Not enough to complete I- 485 at about 120M. @#$@#$%e Not Enough!

The Housing Tax Credits are Real Stimulus, but much of this bill isn’t, and like many I’d like to see more investments in our future. In an 800B bill, you would think we could get 100B for infrastructure, and another 50B making higher education more affordable. We are no where near that now.  President Obama, please send Rahm over to discuss the urgent need to invest in America in his “forthright” way.  It is just too important to screw up.

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As I think about the day, if I only had one word to describe the day on the mall- it would be Joy. Despite a crushing crowd early, despite the cold, and the long wait- we were surrounded by all kinds of people, young and old, every race, every ethnicity, and they were celebrating America.

Yes they loved Obama, but they loved what he represents more, the American ideal. For the first time African-Americans have been brought into the compact that is America.

Now, anyone can grow up to be President. Tell your children.

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Bank of America

Bank of America received a 20Billion dollar infusion  from TARP Friday to cover losses at Merrill Lynch, reported its first quarterly loss in 17 years at 2.39B and its stock fell to single digits this past week.  All of this has created a storm for bank Chairman Ken Lewis who the Observer quoted an industry watcher as being in  “the Fight of his Life.” My money is on Ken.

The Charlotte  Chamber of Commerce reported on job gains and investment in the Charlotte MSA in 2008:

The year-end numbers of 2008 are certainly something to be proud of.  Charlotte gained 1,337 firms, a record number, resulting in 12,165 new jobs. Also a record number was the addition of 27.6 million square feet. Investment totaled more than $2.3 billion this year, second highest of all time. The economy may be trying but Charlotte is certainly holding strong.

There are several important companies to note this quarter. Areva, a power industry services group, expanded with 545 new jobs. Designline International, a hybrid bus plant new to Charlotte, created 200 additional jobs. Carolina Asphalt expanded with more than 430,000 square feet of new space and Presbyterian Hospital has invested more than $300 million in expansions at several locations.

Although this year has been full of hardships, the numbers show that Charlotte still continues to grow with a diversified economy. The largest increase this past year was within the retail, healthcare, food service and professional and technical services sectors. Manufacturing also increased by 44 firms and despite the current state of the economy, Charlotte gained more than 80 firms in the finance and insurance industry.

The full story with the last 5 or more years of investment in Charlotte  is here.

Mortgage Interest rates are low, historic lows.

For the week ended Jan. 11, the average 30-year rate in the United States was 4.92 percent, down from 5.10 percent the week before, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor. more her from the Biz Journal

The Federal Reserve made news this week,  Chairman Bernanke’s comments,

“The Federal Reserve retains powerful policy tools and will use them aggressively to help achieve this objective,” Bernanke said. “Fiscal policy can stimulate economic activity, but a sustained recovery will also require a comprehensive plan to stabilize the financial system and restore normal flows of credit.”

Italics are mine.

Agreed. As part of any long term recovery plan (the proposed stimulus is a part) there must be a solution to the credit/foreclosure issues, and declining house values, in the 90% of the markets where no decline is necessary.

Rightly or wrongly, our homes have been our bank accounts, or savings accounts for decades.

There are some markets still way over valued, these market are the minority of US housing, 10% of the major 350 markets or less, located in just 4-6 states… and the rest? Prices are at or near where they should be but are falling anyway. This must be stopped. America, its citizens, US, can not afford this loss in wealth any longer.  We didn’t start it, Wall Street did and now Federal policy must be to 1) stop declining values by increasing demand, 2) forcing the workouts of the estimated 2M foreclosures coming  this year 3) getting the toxic assets off the books of these banks so their equity doesn’t keep falling.

There are high expectations for the new Administration, but so far he has received very high marks from all sides as they seemingly working together to get our economy back on track. So far so good but the real work begins Wednesday,   kumbaya days end, and the political work to turn his plans into legislation, get them passed in an acceptable form, and move to the next issue.

We are all watching, waiting and hoping that once again, when the United States needs a great leader, one has emerged.

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It was not likely any of the passengers knew as they boarded the plane just how lucky they were to have this pilot, on this day flying their US Air airplane to Charlotte North Carolina.

As a young man he flew the F-4 Phantom over Vietnam for the Air Force, so he knew something about danger, and had great training on how to think through the problem. He had spent 40 years of his life flying, teaching and more recently, reviewing accidents for his union, the NTSB and as a safety consultant in the private sector.

Asked by his wife about the danger of flying commercial aircraft, he once told her that is was “unlikely for an airline pilot to ever have a life threatening incident in his career.”

Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger never knew he would need all that training, but he trained for it like he would use it. On this day, on this flight, he needed it, had it, and used it in what will surely be the crowning accomplishment of a lifetime in the air.  Literally threading the needle between the shorelines, and the almost certain death for all of his passengers and people on the ground, he quickly decided his only option was the Hudson River

After landing the plane- technically called “ditching” at sea because you can’t land a plane on water- after a “bumpy” landing in the Hudson,  The crew was well practiced and had everyone off the plane in 90 seconds through emergency exits over the wings- and New York responded once again to an emergency, the way New York responds, with Ferry’s and boats of all kinds picking up the passengers minutes after the touchdown.

Captain Sullenberger? He was the last person off the plane as he apparently calmly walked the plane twice, even though water was waste deep by this time, to make sure everyone was out of the plane. That’s how emergency officials knew so quickly that everyone had been accounted for.

That’s doing it right.

On a personal note, I have a  son being trained by the US Navy to be a pilot. “Sully” will be an example for him and his classmates too. tm

Last week a client closed a loan for a 2nd home that  looked like this:  20% down payment, 5.17% fixed for 30 years, 1 point origination, full doc.  For Owner occupied, check out these rates from  Bank of America

Conventional 30 year fixed

760 or higher credit score – 4.625% with 1 point 0 origination
720 to 740 credit score – 4.75% with 1 point 0 origination

700 to 720 credit score – 4.875% with 1 point 0 origination

FHA 30 year fixed 4.75% with 1 origination and 0 points

VA 30 year fixed 4.875% with 1 origination and 0 points

and yes , financing is very available with scores of 650 and up.

Wells Fargo Announced they would continue all the commitments to the Wachovia Cultural Center uptown- major good new to start 2009.

This includes hosting 4 museums, and a very substantial financial commitment. Way to go Wells Fargo!

GMAC  Flush with $5B of TARP money as a newly reconstituted bank, is considering moving their headquarters to Ballantyne where they already have a major presence.

Looking to take advantage of a soon to be available  skilled financial work force (from expected Wachovia layoffs) stay tuned. If GMAC comes the city and state should pitch a “new GM” on why they should build a green car plant along the Rt 85 corridor.

There is strong buyer interest in Charlotte homes and condos, owner occupied and investors, in the past week!

Our phones have been ringing.

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Charlotte North Carolina  The Big 5 News Stories of 2008

Wachovia- One awful decision

the purchase of Golden West in 2006, brought Wachovia down and forced it into its shotgun wedding with Wells Fargo. “Golden” as it was called had a large branch presence on the West Coast, and a large sub-prime portfolio, Wachovia was able to buy the branches and a  $120+Billion dollar loan portfoli for $25B…. seemed like such a deal. One problem, Golden was a huge palayer in the california sub-prime and “pioneered” the worst loan, the ‘oick – a payment”,  and, did I mention they were in California? It is estimated that something more than $45B of these loans are non-perfoming and worth only a fraction of their face value. Put on your wedding dress.

Charlotte’s Light Rail Success- Lynx had a great year

The first 9 mile line has been open only a little more than a year and has crushed all ridership expectations by far, even the most optimistic, and became a national story for supporters of mass transit.  Ridership has reached 2018 levels and the problems are finding enough parking at the stations.  Before you ascribe it to the high cost of gas, the largest increases in ridership occured Before gas prices skyrocketed in the summer. They have since continued.

Barack Obama He made history here in North Carolina too, but his margin of vicotory may have been eeked out here in Mecklenburg County. Mecklenburg has voted blue the last several Pressidential elections (atleast 2) but for the first time in 36 years, North Carolina voted for a Democrat for President. The reliable south is not so reliable for the Republican party any longer. (see #5 below)

Long-Time Mayor Pat McCrory comes close in Governor’s race, won’t seek re-election

Mayor Pat as he liked to be know has served the city of Charlotte well in his 13 years as Mayor of Charlotte. He took the lead on transit and tirelessly advanced it against opposition mostly from his own party, and then did the same building the arena Uptown and bringing the Bobcats to Charlotte. He was not afraid to anger his Republican base, or to anger the Democrats, in his desire to do what he thought best for Charlotte’s future.

In a strongly Democrtic year, he almost upset the heavily favored nad extremely well-financed Governor-elect Bev Perdue (D), taking the election to the wire. After the loss, he annnounced he would not seek another term as Mayor. Time to move on, Thanks Pat for the leadership you have provided. PS I’ll vote for you for Congress.

North Carolina elects a female Governor, and a female Democratic Senator,

Governor Bev Perdue and Senator Kay Hagan. Bev Perdue was the favorite but had to push back a surprisingly strong challenge from Mayor Pat, but Kay Hagan was not. Senator Hagan rose from relative obscurity to defeat the well known and well financed incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R).  In a Senaotial seat held by Jesse Helms for decades, then Dole, this Democratic win plus Obama’s narrow statewide victory  amounts to a political Titanic for the NC Republican Party.

The last several recessions, Charlotte has not participated. We are in this one, but still the strong, optimistic leadership from the Mayor, the business community, and the people who live her promiseto soften the blows of recession here, providing a brief pause to Charlotte’s growth and contiuned increased influencin state and regional politics.

Atlanta may be the capitol of the New South, But Charlotte’s the heart of the New South.

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The UnSung National Story You Probably Missed  for 2008…
This caught my interest- one that many may have missed, but if you or a loved on has had cancer or died from cancer, it looks like the tide has turned in the War on Cancer.

For the first year ever, new cases of cancer, AND people dying of cancer in the United States went DOWN in 2008.

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